KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

67%

38%

36%

14%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

ICONNO 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.45u · ICON −53.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:25+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:04+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	83.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	61.1%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	61.1%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	61.1%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	61.1%	21.7%	81.4%	38.6%	75.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:03+00:00	61.1%	21.7%	81.4%	30.8%	75.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	61.1%	23.8%	70.3%	30.8%	75.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	61.1%	23.8%	70.3%	30.8%	75.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	61.1%	23.8%	70.3%	30.8%	75.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	46.8%	23.8%	70.3%	30.8%	75.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	46.8%	23.8%	70.4%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	46.8%	23.1%	70.4%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	46.8%	23.1%	70.4%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	46.8%	23.1%	70.4%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	46.8%	23.1%	48.1%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	46.8%	23.1%	48.1%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	46.8%	23.1%	48.1%	30.8%	75.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	48.1%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	48.1%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	48.1%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	48.1%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	48.1%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	50.0%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	50.0%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	46.0%	23.1%	50.0%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	50.8%	23.1%	50.0%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	50.8%	23.1%	50.0%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	50.8%	23.1%	50.0%	21.3%	48.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	59.7%	37.0%	77.1%	42.3%	14.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	59.7%	37.0%	76.1%	42.3%	14.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	59.7%	37.0%	76.1%	42.3%	14.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	59.7%	37.0%	76.1%	42.3%	14.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	59.7%	37.0%	76.1%	42.3%	14.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	60.0%	37.0%	76.1%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	60.0%	37.0%	76.1%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	60.0%	37.0%	76.1%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	60.0%	37.0%	76.1%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	73.2%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	73.2%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	73.2%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	60.0%	39.7%	73.2%	35.3%	16.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	56.1%	39.9%	73.2%	35.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	66.7%	35.7%	72.0%	38.3%	13.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	66.7%	35.7%	79.5%	38.3%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	66.7%	35.7%	79.5%	38.3%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	66.7%	35.7%	79.5%	38.3%	13.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗