KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

67%

38%

36%

14%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

ICONNO 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.45u · ICON −53.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	8.0%	41.9%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	1.4%	34.3%	2.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	70.3%	36.4%	52.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	73.6%	54.6%	47.7%	—	20.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	61.8%	60.3%	6.7%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.6%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	27.2%	53.3%	2.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	28.1%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	33.0%	50.9%	0.7%	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	42.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	28.9%	29.7%	9.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	30.9%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	48.0%	13.1%	13.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	44.0%	0.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	42.8%	12.8%	17.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	21.3%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	36.1%	28.2%	29.2%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	19.8%	34.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	16.0%	25.1%	44.2%	6.5%	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	40.5%	33.6%	41.6%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	25.6%	27.6%	36.5%	0.0%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	20.9%	39.8%	25.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	19.1%	46.0%	21.0%	10.7%	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	28.8%	43.1%	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	25.6%	42.8%	23.4%	30.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗