KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u

WN2NO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.80u · WN2 −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	92.4%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	19.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	38.7%	6.8%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	67.0%	8.7%	57.7%	—	18.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.9%	6.9%	2.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.5%	2.1%	3.2%	—	13.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	1.1%	1.2%	30.9%	—	19.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	67.4%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	6.9%	1.5%	44.2%	—	30.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	5.9%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	3.9%	1.3%	60.4%	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.0%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	3.9%	3.8%	16.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	3.0%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	0.8%	9.4%	9.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.9%	64.7%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.8%	7.4%	4.9%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.4%	3.1%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.9%	1.5%	1.4%	100.0%	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.4%	0.8%	74.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	1.2%	0.3%	8.1%	1.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	100.0%	1.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.8%	0.1%	0.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	61.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0161
National Blend	11%	61.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0123
IFS Ensemble	11%	62.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0117
NWS forecast	7%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.0055
ICON	3%	64.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	2%	65.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Newark stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗