KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u

WN2NO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.80u · WN2 −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:49+00:00	3.9%	9.6%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	3.9%	9.6%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	3.9%	9.6%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00	3.9%	9.6%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	3.9%	9.6%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	3.9%	9.6%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	3.9%	11.7%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	3.9%	11.7%	0.1%	20.6%	2.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:34+00:00	0.6%	10.8%	0.1%	20.6%	2.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	0.6%	10.8%	0.1%	20.6%	2.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	3.5%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	3.5%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	3.5%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	1.8%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	1.8%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	1.8%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	1.8%	10.8%	0.1%	12.7%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	61.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0161
National Blend	11%	61.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0123
IFS Ensemble	11%	62.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0117
NWS forecast	7%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.0055
ICON	3%	64.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	2%	65.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Newark stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗