KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

64%

56%

54%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 24.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.25u · EPS −24.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	87.9%	41.0%	82.7%	48.2%	86.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	87.9%	41.0%	82.7%	48.2%	86.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	87.9%	41.0%	93.6%	48.2%	86.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	87.9%	41.0%	93.6%	48.2%	86.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	87.9%	41.0%	93.6%	48.2%	86.5%
2026-10-15T07:48:50+00:00	80.1%	41.0%	93.6%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	80.1%	41.0%	93.6%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	80.1%	41.0%	93.6%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00	80.1%	41.0%	93.6%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	80.1%	41.0%	93.6%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	80.1%	41.0%	93.1%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	93.1%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	80.1%	50.0%	93.1%	56.2%	81.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	92.6%	50.0%	93.1%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	92.6%	50.0%	93.1%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:34+00:00	92.6%	52.8%	93.1%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	92.6%	52.8%	93.1%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	92.6%	52.8%	97.8%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	92.6%	52.8%	97.8%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	92.6%	52.8%	97.8%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	92.6%	52.8%	97.8%	56.2%	81.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	97.8%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	97.8%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	97.8%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	97.8%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	80.1%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	87.9%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	87.9%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	87.9%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	87.9%	52.8%	93.7%	62.9%	87.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	91.9%	36.3%	92.7%	57.9%	85.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	91.9%	36.3%	92.7%	57.9%	85.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	91.9%	36.3%	92.7%	57.9%	85.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	91.9%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	85.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	91.9%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	85.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	91.9%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	85.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	87.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	87.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	87.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.5%	57.9%	87.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.5%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	94.2%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	94.5%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	94.5%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	94.5%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	94.5%	36.3%	98.7%	67.0%	87.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	91.6%	53.7%	96.9%	51.0%	73.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	91.6%	47.6%	96.9%	51.0%	73.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	91.6%	47.6%	96.9%	51.0%	73.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	91.6%	47.6%	96.5%	51.0%	73.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	91.6%	47.6%	96.5%	51.0%	73.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	91.6%	47.6%	96.5%	51.0%	73.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.5%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.5%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.5%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.5%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.5%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	96.9%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	97.4%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	97.4%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	92.7%	47.6%	97.4%	50.0%	62.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	94.2%	47.6%	97.4%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	94.2%	47.6%	97.4%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	94.2%	47.6%	97.4%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	94.2%	47.6%	97.4%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	94.2%	47.6%	97.4%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	94.2%	53.5%	98.0%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	94.2%	53.5%	98.0%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	94.2%	53.5%	98.0%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	93.9%	53.5%	98.0%	56.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	94.0%	53.5%	98.0%	56.4%	64.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	66.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	65.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗