KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

64%

56%

54%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 24.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.25u · EPS −24.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	63.5%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	53.9%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	26.5%	73.5%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	72.0%	78.1%	26.3%	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	82.5%	64.3%	43.4%	—	37.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	78.9%	68.4%	16.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	70.5%	71.9%	30.1%	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	13.5%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	81.0%	59.1%	53.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	68.9%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	77.2%	70.1%	75.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	70.6%	53.6%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	81.0%	69.5%	75.6%	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	72.4%	65.7%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	55.8%	60.6%	56.8%	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	60.9%	60.9%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	37.8%	61.2%	47.9%	0.0%	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	59.5%	37.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	75.3%	61.8%	54.4%	—	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	69.5%	66.4%	1.4%	—	31.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	65.9%	66.9%	39.6%	0.0%	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	80.1%	52.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	78.3%	70.2%	57.4%	63.4%	36.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	80.9%	74.1%	59.0%	—	34.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	73.9%	74.9%	50.0%	63.2%	31.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	85.3%	81.8%	62.3%	—	43.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	89.8%	87.0%	75.5%	87.0%	48.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	89.5%	59.0%	—	39.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	66.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	65.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗