KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

36%

32%

32%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

EPSNO 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.50u · EPS −39.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:30+00:00	78.3%	38.9%	83.4%	53.8%	45.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	78.3%	38.9%	83.4%	53.8%	45.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	78.3%	38.9%	83.4%	53.8%	45.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	78.3%	38.9%	83.4%	53.8%	45.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:26+00:00	63.2%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	63.2%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	63.2%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	63.2%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	63.2%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:04+00:00	63.2%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	72.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	77.5%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	77.5%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	77.5%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	77.5%	36.2%	92.6%	55.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:03+00:00	77.5%	36.2%	92.6%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	77.5%	22.2%	79.0%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	77.5%	22.2%	79.0%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	77.5%	22.2%	79.0%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	66.1%	22.2%	79.0%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	66.5%	22.3%	78.6%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	66.5%	21.3%	78.6%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	66.5%	21.3%	78.6%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	66.5%	21.3%	78.6%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	66.5%	21.3%	63.4%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	66.5%	21.3%	63.4%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	66.5%	21.3%	63.4%	41.0%	82.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	80.3%	21.3%	63.4%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	80.3%	21.3%	63.4%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	80.3%	21.3%	63.4%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	80.3%	21.3%	63.4%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	80.3%	21.3%	63.4%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	80.3%	21.4%	69.6%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	80.3%	21.4%	69.6%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	80.3%	21.4%	69.6%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	78.7%	21.4%	69.6%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	78.7%	21.4%	69.6%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	78.7%	21.4%	69.6%	36.3%	79.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	77.8%	34.3%	85.2%	49.3%	79.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	77.8%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	79.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	77.8%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	79.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	77.8%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	79.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	63.6%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	63.6%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	63.6%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	63.6%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	63.6%	34.3%	79.6%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	63.6%	24.3%	82.0%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	63.6%	24.3%	82.0%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	63.6%	24.3%	82.0%	49.3%	73.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	83.1%	24.3%	82.0%	42.1%	73.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	83.2%	24.4%	82.0%	42.1%	73.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	86.9%	44.5%	94.2%	41.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	86.9%	44.5%	94.2%	41.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	86.9%	44.5%	93.5%	41.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	86.9%	44.5%	93.5%	41.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	86.9%	44.5%	93.5%	41.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	86.9%	44.5%	93.5%	41.1%	43.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	93.5%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	93.5%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	93.5%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	93.5%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	83.7%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	86.4%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	87.6%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	87.6%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	87.6%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	84.8%	44.5%	87.6%	36.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	84.4%	44.5%	87.6%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	84.4%	44.5%	87.6%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	84.4%	44.5%	87.6%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	84.4%	44.5%	87.6%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	84.4%	29.4%	89.0%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	84.4%	29.4%	89.0%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	84.4%	29.4%	89.0%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	84.4%	29.4%	89.0%	32.2%	52.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	81.2%	29.8%	89.0%	32.2%	52.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	91.5%	35.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:04+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	91.5%	35.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	91.5%	35.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	35.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	35.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	35.3%	42.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	89.8%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	87.9%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	87.9%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	85.2%	32.1%	87.9%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	88.9%	32.1%	87.9%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	88.9%	32.1%	87.9%	32.3%	35.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	88.9%	32.1%	87.9%	32.3%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	72.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	66.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗