KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

36%

32%

32%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

EPSNO 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.50u · EPS −39.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	16.7%	61.3%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	59.1%	66.4%	16.2%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	71.5%	50.0%	29.7%	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	66.3%	53.8%	8.7%	—	20.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	55.6%	57.1%	17.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	6.5%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	67.8%	42.5%	36.9%	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	52.6%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	62.1%	53.5%	59.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	53.6%	35.9%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	66.1%	51.8%	59.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	54.7%	47.2%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	36.6%	41.3%	37.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	41.1%	41.1%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	20.4%	40.8%	28.5%	0.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	38.5%	19.8%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	55.5%	40.3%	33.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	47.8%	44.4%	0.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	43.0%	44.2%	19.9%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	51.2%	59.5%	29.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	56.2%	46.3%	33.1%	38.9%	16.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	59.0%	50.0%	33.7%	—	15.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	48.7%	50.0%	25.1%	36.8%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	63.7%	58.3%	35.0%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	70.7%	65.5%	48.5%	65.5%	22.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	68.9%	29.8%	—	15.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	72.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	66.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	65.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗