KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

79%

55%

39%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

HRESNO 33.5¢Risks 33.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.55u · HRES −33.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	52.3%	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	96.4%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	61.3%	88.2%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	83.8%	74.3%	36.2%	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	68.3%	63.6%	58.0%	—	62.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	85.8%	62.7%	87.1%	—	65.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	81.6%	69.2%	83.7%	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	38.7%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	71.4%	39.3%	78.1%	—	41.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	65.8%	55.1%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	48.2%	47.4%	57.8%	—	37.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	58.9%	64.9%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	36.4%	63.6%	41.8%	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	53.8%	59.4%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	60.6%	66.1%	47.1%	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	33.5%	68.3%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	54.1%	67.0%	36.9%	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	64.5%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	62.9%	53.3%	45.6%	—	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	37.8%	59.0%	2.9%	—	23.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	58.1%	61.5%	19.1%	7.6%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	61.9%	64.1%	18.3%	—	25.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	69.2%	69.2%	36.5%	64.6%	32.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	73.1%	36.1%	—	31.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	66.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	65.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	64.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	61.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	60.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗