KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

69%

59%

36%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

EPSNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.45u · EPS −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	29.8%	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	29.6%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	87.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	34.8%	69.4%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	61.1%	47.9%	14.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	39.9%	35.0%	29.7%	—	34.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	62.0%	33.0%	64.2%	—	35.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	54.0%	38.2%	57.1%	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	13.5%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	39.3%	13.4%	47.5%	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	32.6%	23.3%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	17.8%	17.2%	24.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	24.9%	30.2%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	10.2%	28.2%	12.9%	—	7.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	19.6%	23.8%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	24.0%	28.7%	14.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	7.6%	29.9%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	17.6%	27.6%	8.6%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	24.5%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	22.1%	15.5%	11.4%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	7.5%	18.3%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	16.8%	19.1%	2.1%	0.5%	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	18.3%	19.9%	1.7%	—	3.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	22.7%	22.7%	5.5%	19.1%	4.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	24.8%	4.9%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	66.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	63.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗