KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

69%

59%

36%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

EPSNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.45u · EPS −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:43+00:00	65.2%	60.7%	74.5%	33.5%	73.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	65.2%	60.7%	74.5%	33.5%	73.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	65.2%	60.7%	76.4%	33.5%	73.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	65.2%	60.7%	76.4%	33.5%	73.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	65.2%	60.7%	76.4%	33.5%	73.4%
2026-10-15T07:48:50+00:00	73.6%	60.7%	76.4%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	73.6%	60.7%	76.4%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	73.6%	60.7%	76.4%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00	73.6%	60.7%	76.4%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	73.6%	60.7%	76.4%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	73.6%	60.7%	76.0%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	76.0%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	76.0%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	76.0%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	84.6%	50.0%	76.0%	51.8%	62.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	67.9%	52.1%	79.2%	54.2%	76.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	67.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	76.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	67.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	76.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	67.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	76.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	61.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	61.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	61.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	61.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	61.9%	52.1%	76.7%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	61.9%	35.6%	76.0%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	61.9%	35.6%	76.0%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	61.9%	35.6%	76.0%	54.2%	70.3%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	64.2%	35.6%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	64.2%	35.6%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	64.2%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	70.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	39.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	69.3%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	68.6%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	68.6%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	68.6%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	68.6%	33.1%	76.0%	35.8%	59.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	66.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	63.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗