KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

79%

75%

71%

60%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.6¢Risks 74.65u

ICONNO 25.4¢Risks 25.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.35u · ICON −25.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	32.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	83.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	18.9%	33.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	58.4%	28.1%	52.8%	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	92.9%	12.4%	54.4%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	14.6%	17.9%	40.9%	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	15.9%	54.8%	67.7%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	11.4%	67.4%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	20.7%	72.1%	59.9%	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	32.6%	65.8%	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	45.6%	75.2%	57.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	42.9%	87.5%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	67.0%	83.4%	55.5%	—	54.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	80.4%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	81.7%	75.3%	67.0%	—	65.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	78.1%	66.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	82.4%	73.2%	54.1%	—	62.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	84.4%	71.2%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	89.6%	76.2%	75.3%	71.8%	69.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	80.2%	0.1%	—	68.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	86.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	67.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	66.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	65.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	64.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗