KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

79%

75%

71%

60%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.6¢Risks 74.65u

ICONNO 25.4¢Risks 25.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.35u · ICON −25.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:50+00:00	67.8%	77.1%	69.8%	43.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	67.8%	77.1%	69.8%	43.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	67.8%	77.1%	69.8%	43.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00	67.8%	77.1%	69.8%	43.1%	47.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	67.8%	77.1%	69.8%	43.1%	47.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	35.0%	67.9%	61.6%	23.7%	72.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	35.0%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	72.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	35.0%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	72.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	35.0%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	72.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	67.9%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	67.9%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	67.9%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	67.9%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	67.9%	67.9%	50.8%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	67.9%	38.7%	65.0%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	67.9%	38.7%	65.0%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	67.9%	38.7%	65.0%	23.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	20.2%	38.7%	65.0%	25.7%	94.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	20.3%	38.7%	65.0%	25.7%	95.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	88.3%	50.0%	76.0%	67.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	88.3%	50.0%	93.4%	67.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	88.3%	50.0%	93.4%	67.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	88.3%	50.0%	93.4%	67.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	88.3%	50.0%	93.4%	67.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	75.7%	50.0%	93.4%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	75.7%	50.0%	93.4%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	75.7%	50.0%	93.4%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	75.7%	50.0%	93.4%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	75.7%	71.3%	89.6%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	75.7%	71.3%	89.6%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	75.7%	71.3%	89.6%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	75.7%	71.3%	89.6%	75.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	79.0%	71.3%	89.6%	75.2%	59.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	67.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	66.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	65.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	64.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗