KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

86%

73%

62%

58%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.6¢Risks 76.60u

HRESNO 23.4¢Risks 23.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.40u · HRES −23.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	74.6%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	30.1%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	11.1%	21.8%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	44.4%	17.5%	38.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	86.5%	6.4%	39.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.6%	9.7%	27.0%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	8.1%	39.0%	52.4%	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	5.3%	51.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	10.8%	56.6%	43.4%	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	19.0%	49.1%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	29.1%	59.6%	40.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	26.4%	75.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	49.1%	69.5%	37.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	64.8%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	66.1%	57.7%	48.0%	—	46.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	60.9%	47.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	66.0%	54.1%	34.0%	—	41.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	68.4%	51.1%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	76.2%	56.5%	55.5%	51.1%	48.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	61.1%	0.0%	—	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	73%	67.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	66.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗