KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

86%

73%

62%

58%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.6¢Risks 76.60u

HRESNO 23.4¢Risks 23.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.40u · HRES −23.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	64.4%	47.5%	76.5%	61.0%	43.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	64.4%	42.8%	76.5%	61.0%	43.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	64.4%	42.8%	76.5%	61.0%	43.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	64.4%	42.8%	78.2%	61.0%	43.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	64.4%	42.8%	78.2%	61.0%	43.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	64.4%	42.8%	78.2%	61.0%	43.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	78.2%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	78.2%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	78.2%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	78.2%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	78.2%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	61.1%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	83.3%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	91.0%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	91.0%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	80.2%	42.8%	91.0%	54.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	87.4%	42.8%	91.0%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	87.4%	42.8%	91.0%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	87.4%	42.8%	91.0%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	87.4%	42.8%	91.0%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	87.4%	42.8%	91.0%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	87.4%	61.8%	95.2%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	87.4%	61.8%	95.2%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	87.4%	61.8%	95.2%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	85.9%	61.8%	95.2%	58.0%	72.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	86.0%	61.8%	95.2%	58.0%	72.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	73%	67.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	66.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	66.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗