KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

82%

58%

55%

42%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

EPSNO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.20u · EPS −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	63.5%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	5.9%	13.2%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	31.1%	9.9%	26.3%	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	76.8%	2.9%	26.6%	—	4.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.5%	4.6%	16.0%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	3.6%	24.8%	36.7%	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	2.1%	35.6%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	4.9%	40.1%	27.9%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	9.5%	32.6%	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	16.1%	42.2%	24.8%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	14.0%	59.8%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	31.4%	51.8%	21.6%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	46.2%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	47.1%	38.5%	29.6%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	41.1%	28.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	45.9%	34.0%	17.6%	—	23.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	47.9%	30.7%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	56.5%	35.1%	34.1%	30.1%	28.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	38.9%	0.0%	—	25.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	71.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	71.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	67.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	66.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗