KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

66%

55%

43%

15%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

HRESNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.50u · HRES −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	17.0%	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	20.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	13.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	53.4%	55.4%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	28.6%	93.1%	36.2%	—	52.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	24.3%	55.8%	63.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	27.0%	70.4%	32.3%	—	23.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	57.8%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	32.3%	49.2%	35.2%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	17.3%	47.5%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	26.5%	47.5%	36.9%	—	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	31.1%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	29.9%	38.8%	13.6%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	17.2%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	27.4%	32.2%	9.8%	—	3.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	31.8%	34.3%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	28.7%	35.7%	17.7%	27.9%	4.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	4.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	64.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	62.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	56.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗