KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

66%

55%

43%

15%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.50u

HRESNO 49.5¢Risks 49.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.50u · HRES −49.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:24+00:00	50.0%	82.5%	69.5%	13.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	50.0%	76.4%	69.5%	13.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	50.0%	76.4%	69.5%	13.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	50.0%	76.4%	66.9%	13.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	50.0%	76.4%	66.9%	13.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	50.0%	76.4%	66.9%	13.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	66.9%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	66.9%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	66.9%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	66.9%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	66.9%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	54.8%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	67.8%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	69.5%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	69.5%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	58.0%	76.4%	69.5%	15.8%	48.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	55.2%	76.4%	69.5%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	55.2%	76.4%	69.5%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	55.2%	76.4%	69.5%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	55.2%	76.4%	69.5%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	55.2%	76.4%	69.5%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	55.2%	84.1%	73.1%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	55.2%	84.1%	73.1%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	55.2%	84.1%	73.1%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	50.9%	84.1%	73.1%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	50.9%	84.1%	73.2%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00	50.9%	85.6%	73.2%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	50.9%	85.6%	73.2%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	50.9%	85.6%	73.2%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	50.9%	85.6%	63.7%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	50.9%	85.6%	63.7%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	50.9%	85.6%	63.7%	14.9%	44.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	63.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	63.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	63.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	63.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	63.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	65.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	65.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	52.6%	85.6%	65.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	55.2%	85.6%	65.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	55.2%	85.6%	65.7%	15.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	55.2%	85.6%	65.7%	15.4%	42.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	64.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	62.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	43%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	56.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗