KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

51%

40%

34%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

HRESNO 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.10u · HRES −66.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	10.6%	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	40.0%	41.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	18.0%	87.0%	24.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	14.4%	41.3%	49.3%	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	16.0%	56.1%	20.0%	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	19.5%	33.7%	21.8%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	8.8%	31.9%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	14.8%	31.5%	22.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	17.8%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	16.7%	23.4%	6.2%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	8.1%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	14.4%	17.8%	3.9%	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	17.1%	19.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	19.7%	7.9%	14.2%	1.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	21.1%	—	—	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	64.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	63.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	61.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	61.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	55.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗