KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

51%

40%

34%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

HRESNO 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.10u · HRES −66.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	65.6%	44.3%	95.3%	55.0%	62.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	65.5%	44.3%	95.2%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	65.5%	42.1%	95.2%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	65.5%	42.1%	95.2%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	65.5%	42.1%	95.2%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	65.5%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	65.5%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	65.5%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	47.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	47.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	47.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	91.5%	54.9%	47.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	91.5%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	27.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	20.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	20.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	20.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	20.7%	42.1%	86.8%	27.8%	47.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	37.0%	44.0%	53.4%	23.8%	41.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	37.0%	44.0%	54.3%	23.8%	41.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	37.0%	44.0%	54.3%	23.8%	41.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	37.0%	44.0%	54.3%	23.8%	41.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	37.0%	44.0%	54.3%	23.8%	41.7%
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	54.3%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	54.3%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	54.3%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	54.3%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	39.6%	60.5%	51.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	39.6%	60.5%	51.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	39.6%	60.5%	51.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	39.6%	60.5%	51.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	34.3%	60.5%	51.0%	7.3%	39.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	64.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	63.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	61.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	61.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	55.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗