KEWR / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

88%

72%

66%

39%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

EPSNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.00u · EPS −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	47.6%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	4.6%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	3.5%	39.3%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	59.7%	28.1%	9.0%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	77.4%	65.7%	46.4%	64.3%	49.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	56.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	75.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	74.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	72%	73.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	70.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	66.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗