KEWR / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

77%

74%

43%

25%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u

EPSNO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.75u · EPS −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	30.2%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	3.0%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	1.0%	21.8%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	38.9%	13.4%	3.1%	—	23.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	58.0%	44.2%	26.0%	42.7%	28.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	34.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	74.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	75.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	69.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	70.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	67.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗