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KEWR / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
85%
AIFS
77%
ICON
74%
HRES
43%
EPS
25%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 55.2¢Risks 55.25u
VS
EPSNO 44.8¢Risks 44.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.75u · EPS −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:0010-20 04:0310-20 10:0710-20 15:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:0074.0%14.0%82.2%47.5%61.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:0074.0%14.0%82.2%47.5%61.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0074.0%14.0%76.6%47.5%61.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0074.0%14.0%76.6%47.5%61.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:0074.0%14.0%76.6%47.5%61.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0077.1%14.0%76.6%47.5%74.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0077.1%14.0%76.6%47.5%74.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:0077.1%14.0%76.6%47.5%74.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0077.1%14.0%76.6%47.5%74.5%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:0077.1%24.4%85.3%42.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0077.1%24.4%85.3%42.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0077.1%24.4%85.3%42.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0077.1%24.4%85.3%42.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0077.1%24.4%85.3%42.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0077.1%24.4%85.3%42.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:0077.1%25.2%85.3%42.8%74.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 285%75.4°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single77%74.5°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON74%75.2°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
IFS HRES43%69.3°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend42%70.0°F2.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble25%67.7°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗