KEWR / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

59%

57%

26%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

EPSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.10u · EPS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	16.5%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	0.2%	9.9%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	20.9%	5.1%	0.8%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	36.4%	24.3%	11.7%	23.2%	13.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	17.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	75.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	74.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	69.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	67.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗