KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.6¢Risks 48.65u

WN2NO 51.4¢Risks 51.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.35u · WN2 −51.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:37+00:00	19.1%	99.8%	52.9%	81.2%	58.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	19.1%	99.8%	52.9%	81.2%	58.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	19.1%	99.8%	52.9%	81.2%	58.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	19.1%	99.8%	20.9%	81.2%	58.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	19.1%	99.8%	20.9%	81.2%	58.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	19.1%	99.8%	20.9%	81.2%	58.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	20.9%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	20.9%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	20.9%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	20.9%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	23.2%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	14.0%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	14.0%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	14.0%	99.8%	27.0%	40.4%	67.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	6.4%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	13.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	6.4%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	13.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	6.4%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	6.4%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	6.4%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	13.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	5.7%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	5.7%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	5.7%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	5.7%	98.4%	5.9%	14.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T10:33:57+00:00	5.7%	98.4%	5.9%	10.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	5.7%	95.2%	2.2%	10.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	5.7%	95.2%	2.2%	10.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	5.7%	95.2%	2.2%	10.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	4.7%	95.2%	2.2%	10.9%	3.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	4.7%	95.1%	2.2%	10.9%	3.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	82.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.9044
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3036
National Blend	35%	75.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1197
IFS HRES	11%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0119
AIFS Single	5%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0022
ICON	4%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0015
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0005

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗