KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.6¢Risks 48.65u

WN2NO 51.4¢Risks 51.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.35u · WN2 −51.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	62.7%	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	24.9%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	55.2%	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	71.2%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	5.1%	7.9%	45.8%	—	65.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	6.2%	95.4%	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	52.3%	15.1%	74.9%	—	40.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	39.0%	65.5%	30.9%	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	50.8%	69.2%	23.2%	—	42.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.4%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.3%	68.6%	6.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.6%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.3%	53.7%	3.9%	—	9.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.7%	29.2%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.0%	23.2%	4.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.7%	18.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.5%	11.8%	2.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.2%	13.8%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.3%	10.4%	5.3%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.1%	12.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	9.4%	3.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	7.4%	3.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	7.5%	2.6%	2.6%	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	4.6%	3.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	5.3%	2.4%	3.2%	1.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	4.7%	1.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	4.7%	1.2%	1.6%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	4.4%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	3.7%	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	2.8%	0.6%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	82.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.9044
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3036
National Blend	35%	75.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1197
IFS HRES	11%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0119
AIFS Single	5%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0022
ICON	4%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0015
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0005

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗