KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

49%

43%

32%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

ICONNO 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.60u · ICON −49.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	87.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	3.2%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	9.0%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	71.4%	43.0%	11.5%	—	68.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	73.4%	86.5%	43.4%	—	83.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	83.5%	90.0%	41.7%	—	74.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	64.1%	94.1%	33.7%	—	66.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	69.2%	93.7%	21.9%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	26.0%	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	40.5%	79.2%	22.1%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	48.2%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	30.6%	65.3%	17.2%	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	38.8%	73.2%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	37.6%	60.6%	17.7%	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	27.4%	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	34.0%	65.1%	14.5%	—	27.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	28.8%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	35.1%	56.5%	16.2%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	36.7%	52.2%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	31.0%	54.6%	14.7%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	31.4%	57.2%	12.6%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	24.6%	62.3%	17.4%	35.4%	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	22.8%	62.7%	11.5%	—	19.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	11.3%	64.4%	10.7%	33.1%	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	20.1%	55.6%	10.4%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	33.1%	52.9%	15.4%	34.5%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	27.2%	59.0%	11.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	19.2%	65.4%	11.7%	23.8%	15.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.6%	59.8%	21.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	78.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	74.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	8%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗