KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

49%

43%

32%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

ICONNO 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.60u · ICON −49.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:09+00:00	50.9%	98.7%	29.7%	50.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	50.9%	98.7%	35.0%	50.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	50.9%	98.7%	35.0%	50.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	50.9%	98.7%	35.0%	50.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	50.9%	98.7%	35.0%	50.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	35.0%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	35.0%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	35.0%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	35.0%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	45.4%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:48+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	30.7%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	47.2%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	46.1%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	46.1%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	46.1%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	46.1%	98.7%	38.3%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	46.1%	98.1%	21.9%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	46.1%	98.1%	21.9%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	46.1%	98.1%	21.9%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	46.1%	98.1%	21.9%	42.9%	31.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	43.2%	97.9%	21.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	43.2%	98.1%	21.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	43.2%	98.1%	21.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	43.2%	98.1%	21.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	43.2%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	43.2%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	43.2%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	31.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	22.9%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	47.1%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	27.0%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	31.4%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	31.4%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	49.0%	98.1%	31.4%	42.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	31.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	31.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	31.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	31.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	31.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	50.0%	97.0%	24.6%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	50.0%	97.0%	24.6%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	50.0%	97.0%	24.6%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	51.0%	97.0%	24.6%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	51.0%	96.8%	24.6%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	51.0%	92.9%	24.6%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	51.0%	92.9%	24.6%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	51.0%	92.9%	24.6%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	51.0%	92.9%	20.5%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	51.0%	92.9%	20.5%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	51.0%	92.9%	20.5%	39.4%	16.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	47.0%	92.9%	20.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	47.0%	92.9%	20.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	47.0%	92.9%	20.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	47.0%	92.9%	20.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	47.0%	92.9%	20.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	47.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	47.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	47.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	22.5%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	43.2%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	43.2%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	43.2%	32.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	49.0%	92.6%	43.2%	32.4%	8.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	78.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	74.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	8%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗