KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

33%

33%

26%

13%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

WN2NO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.70u · WN2 −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00	29.3%	88.8%	14.7%	28.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	29.3%	88.8%	18.0%	28.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	29.3%	88.8%	18.0%	28.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	29.3%	88.8%	18.0%	28.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	28.0%	88.8%	18.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	28.0%	88.8%	18.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	28.0%	88.8%	18.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	28.0%	88.8%	18.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	28.0%	88.8%	18.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	28.0%	88.8%	13.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	28.0%	90.9%	13.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	28.0%	90.9%	13.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	32.9%	90.9%	13.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	32.9%	90.7%	13.0%	32.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	32.9%	91.6%	13.0%	32.7%	25.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	79.7°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	74.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	74.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	73.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗