KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

33%

33%

26%

13%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

WN2NO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.70u · WN2 −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	5.4%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	58.4%	29.8%	6.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	60.1%	76.8%	29.7%	—	72.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	72.4%	81.6%	27.7%	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	48.4%	87.7%	20.6%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	53.3%	86.7%	11.6%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	14.2%	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	24.8%	64.6%	11.3%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	31.0%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	16.6%	47.2%	7.9%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	22.4%	55.7%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	21.0%	41.3%	7.9%	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	13.5%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	17.6%	44.9%	5.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	13.8%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	17.6%	35.1%	6.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	18.3%	30.5%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	14.0%	32.0%	5.1%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.9%	33.6%	4.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.5%	37.7%	5.9%	15.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	8.2%	37.3%	3.2%	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	3.0%	38.1%	2.8%	13.4%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	6.2%	28.8%	2.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.2%	25.6%	4.0%	13.0%	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.6%	29.8%	2.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.8%	34.6%	2.4%	6.6%	3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	28.1%	5.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	79.7°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	74.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	74.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	73.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗