KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

25%

10%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 22.1¢Risks 22.15u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.85u · WN2 −77.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	15.3%	3.9%	0.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	15.2%	29.1%	3.5%	—	24.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	22.8%	33.0%	2.7%	—	14.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.5%	40.5%	1.3%	—	8.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	8.3%	36.1%	0.4%	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.3%	12.2%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	4.6%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	6.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	2.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.6%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	82.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	79.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	76.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗