KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

65%

64%

36%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.3¢Risks 63.30u

ICONNO 36.7¢Risks 36.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.70u · ICON −36.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:48+00:00	73.6%	98.7%	63.7%	57.9%	62.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	73.6%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	62.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	73.6%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	62.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	73.6%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	62.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	73.6%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	62.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	72.0%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	72.0%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	72.0%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	72.0%	98.7%	69.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	57.9%	59.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	60.5%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	72.0%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	59.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	65.0%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	65.0%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	67.2%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	71.4%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	71.4%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	74.4%	98.4%	71.4%	54.5%	66.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	76.9%	98.4%	71.4%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	76.9%	98.4%	71.4%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	76.9%	98.4%	71.4%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	76.9%	98.4%	71.4%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	76.9%	98.4%	71.4%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	76.9%	97.9%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	76.9%	97.9%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	76.9%	97.9%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	71.4%	97.9%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	71.4%	97.7%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	71.4%	95.6%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	71.4%	95.6%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	71.4%	95.6%	73.0%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	71.4%	95.6%	70.8%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	71.4%	95.6%	70.8%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	71.4%	95.6%	70.8%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	70.8%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	70.8%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	70.8%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	70.8%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	70.8%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	60.2%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	60.2%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	64.4%	95.6%	60.2%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	66.2%	95.6%	60.2%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	66.2%	95.6%	60.2%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	66.2%	95.6%	60.2%	50.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	66.7%	90.9%	68.5%	70.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	66.7%	90.9%	68.5%	70.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	66.7%	90.9%	56.8%	70.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	66.7%	90.9%	56.8%	70.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	66.7%	90.9%	56.8%	70.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	66.7%	90.9%	56.8%	70.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	56.8%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	56.8%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	56.8%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	56.8%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	68.5%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	75.3%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	75.3%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	75.3%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	75.3%	90.9%	64.7%	63.7%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	78.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗