KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

65%

64%

36%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.3¢Risks 63.30u

ICONNO 36.7¢Risks 36.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.70u · ICON −36.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.4%	91.2%	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	94.0%	94.0%	2.5%	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	75.7%	86.9%	68.3%	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	62.7%	90.3%	32.3%	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	26.1%	63.3%	21.8%	—	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	45.0%	40.9%	14.8%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	17.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	41.3%	29.9%	20.8%	—	45.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	51.8%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	48.2%	84.0%	21.6%	—	44.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	36.1%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	52.9%	67.8%	28.7%	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	57.0%	71.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	60.2%	72.4%	35.9%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	56.3%	67.4%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	63.9%	67.9%	41.3%	0.0%	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	57.8%	76.0%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	58.1%	73.0%	35.2%	53.5%	36.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	61.9%	71.7%	32.5%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	53.7%	72.4%	41.3%	—	45.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	52.6%	70.9%	41.0%	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	50.0%	80.9%	33.1%	65.7%	40.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	55.6%	78.9%	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	55.8%	79.8%	52.9%	61.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	78.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗