KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

62%

57%

42%

18%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

ICONNO 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.80u · ICON −53.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:09+00:00	60.3%	92.5%	39.4%	44.4%	39.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	60.3%	92.5%	43.6%	44.4%	39.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	60.3%	92.5%	43.6%	44.4%	39.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	60.3%	92.5%	43.6%	44.4%	39.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	60.3%	92.5%	43.6%	44.4%	39.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	43.6%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	43.6%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	43.6%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	43.6%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	52.6%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	57.8%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	57.8%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	57.8%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	57.8%	92.5%	42.5%	42.1%	45.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	47.1%	83.7%	34.9%	31.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	47.1%	83.7%	47.4%	31.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	47.1%	83.7%	47.4%	31.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	47.1%	83.7%	47.4%	31.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	47.1%	83.7%	47.4%	31.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	52.0%	83.7%	47.4%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	52.0%	83.7%	47.4%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	52.0%	83.7%	47.4%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	52.0%	83.7%	47.4%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	52.0%	83.7%	47.4%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	52.0%	85.3%	41.8%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	52.0%	85.3%	41.8%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	52.0%	85.3%	41.8%	50.0%	19.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	47.0%	84.9%	41.8%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	47.0%	84.9%	41.8%	50.0%	19.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	57.1%	74.8%	37.9%	42.5%	17.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	57.1%	74.8%	62.1%	42.5%	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	57.1%	74.8%	62.1%	42.5%	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	57.1%	74.8%	62.1%	42.5%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	80.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗