KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

62%

57%

42%

18%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

ICONNO 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.80u · ICON −53.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	34.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.1%	84.5%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	88.5%	88.5%	1.1%	—	59.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	62.9%	77.4%	54.4%	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	47.7%	82.1%	20.0%	—	54.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	14.9%	47.6%	11.9%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	29.3%	25.8%	7.1%	—	20.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	8.5%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	16.7%	10.5%	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	34.2%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	30.6%	70.3%	10.6%	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	20.3%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	33.9%	49.0%	14.7%	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	37.2%	53.0%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	39.8%	53.1%	19.0%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	35.5%	46.8%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	42.4%	46.7%	22.1%	0.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	35.7%	55.6%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	35.2%	51.2%	16.8%	31.0%	17.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	38.1%	48.8%	14.5%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	29.8%	48.8%	19.9%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	28.0%	46.1%	19.1%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	25.1%	58.0%	13.4%	39.4%	18.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	28.8%	54.2%	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	28.0%	54.3%	25.6%	33.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	80.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗