WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
74%
AIFS
43%
HRES
30%
ICON
25%
WN2
21%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u
VS
WN2NO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.55u · WN2 −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00IFS HRES: 29.5% · 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:0010-15 04:4810-15 10:0710-15 15:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:0030.0%68.1%19.7%26.1%36.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:0030.0%68.1%29.6%26.1%36.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:0030.0%68.1%29.6%26.1%36.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:0030.0%68.1%29.6%26.1%36.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:0025.7%68.1%29.6%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0025.7%68.1%29.6%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0025.7%68.1%29.6%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:0025.7%68.1%29.6%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:0025.7%68.1%29.6%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:0025.7%68.1%21.0%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:0025.7%73.9%21.0%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:0025.7%73.9%21.0%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:0043.1%73.9%21.0%29.5%24.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:0043.1%73.9%21.0%29.5%24.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:0043.1%73.9%21.0%29.5%24.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble74%83.1°F2.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
AIFS Single43%80.7°F4.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
National Blend37%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS HRES30%78.8°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON25%78.2°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%78.5°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗