KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

43%

30%

25%

21%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u

WN2NO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.55u · WN2 −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.1%	75.1%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	80.1%	80.1%	0.4%	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	48.5%	65.0%	39.9%	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	33.0%	70.4%	11.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	7.5%	32.3%	5.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	16.8%	14.3%	3.0%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	3.6%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	13.6%	8.0%	4.5%	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	19.6%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	16.6%	52.8%	4.3%	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	9.6%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	18.3%	30.4%	6.2%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	20.4%	33.5%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	21.9%	33.0%	8.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	18.3%	27.1%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	23.0%	26.4%	9.4%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	17.5%	33.6%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	16.8%	28.9%	6.1%	14.0%	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	18.3%	26.3%	4.8%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	12.4%	25.6%	7.1%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.9%	22.8%	6.4%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	8.9%	31.9%	3.7%	17.3%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	10.4%	27.6%	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	9.5%	26.8%	8.3%	12.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	83.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	80.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	78.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	78.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗