KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

43%

30%

25%

21%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u

WN2NO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.55u · WN2 −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00	30.0%	68.1%	19.7%	26.1%	36.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	30.0%	68.1%	29.6%	26.1%	36.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	30.0%	68.1%	29.6%	26.1%	36.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	30.0%	68.1%	29.6%	26.1%	36.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	25.7%	68.1%	29.6%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	25.7%	68.1%	29.6%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	25.7%	68.1%	29.6%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	25.7%	68.1%	29.6%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	25.7%	68.1%	29.6%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	25.7%	68.1%	21.0%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	25.7%	73.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	25.7%	73.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	43.1%	73.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	43.1%	73.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	43.1%	73.9%	21.0%	29.5%	24.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	83.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	80.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	78.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	78.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗