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KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
45%
ICON
25%
AIFS
18%
HRES
16%
WN2
9%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 27.2¢Risks 27.15u
VS
WN2NO 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.85u · WN2 −72.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 13.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:5910-15 04:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:0021.0%46.5%13.7%19.8%13.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0021.0%46.5%13.7%19.8%13.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0021.0%46.5%13.7%19.8%13.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0021.0%46.5%8.7%19.8%13.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0021.0%46.5%8.7%19.8%13.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0021.0%46.5%8.7%19.8%13.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:0016.7%46.5%8.7%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:0016.7%46.5%8.7%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0016.7%46.5%8.7%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:0016.7%46.5%8.7%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0016.7%46.5%8.7%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0016.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:0016.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:0016.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0017.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0017.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0017.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:0017.7%45.3%9.0%16.2%25.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend62%85.0°F4.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%84.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%83.1°F3.4°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON25%79.5°F5.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single18%78.9°F5.0°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES16%77.8°F5.8°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%78.0°F4.1°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗