KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

25%

18%

16%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

WN2NO 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.85u · WN2 −72.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	0.0%	63.3%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	68.9%	68.9%	0.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	34.3%	50.7%	26.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	20.5%	56.1%	5.4%	—	25.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	3.3%	19.5%	2.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.3%	6.9%	1.1%	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.3%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	6.2%	3.2%	1.7%	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	9.6%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	7.6%	34.7%	1.5%	—	6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	3.8%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	8.2%	15.9%	2.1%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.2%	17.7%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	17.0%	2.8%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	7.6%	12.7%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.1%	0.0%	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	6.7%	16.1%	0.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.1%	12.7%	1.7%	4.8%	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.6%	10.8%	1.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	10.0%	1.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.0%	8.2%	1.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.2%	12.7%	0.7%	5.3%	1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.5%	9.8%	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.1%	8.9%	1.8%	2.9%	1.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.4%	11.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	62%	85.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	79.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	77.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗