KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

25%

18%

16%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.2¢Risks 27.15u

WN2NO 72.8¢Risks 72.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.85u · WN2 −72.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00	21.0%	46.5%	13.7%	19.8%	13.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	21.0%	46.5%	13.7%	19.8%	13.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	21.0%	46.5%	13.7%	19.8%	13.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	21.0%	46.5%	8.7%	19.8%	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	21.0%	46.5%	8.7%	19.8%	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	21.0%	46.5%	8.7%	19.8%	13.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	16.7%	46.5%	8.7%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	16.7%	46.5%	8.7%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	16.7%	46.5%	8.7%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	16.7%	46.5%	8.7%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	16.7%	46.5%	8.7%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	16.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	16.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	16.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	17.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	17.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	17.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	17.7%	45.3%	9.0%	16.2%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	62%	85.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	79.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	77.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗