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KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
6%
HRES
3%
ICON
2%
AIFS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 3.5¢Risks 0.86u
VS
WN2NO 96.5¢Risks 24.14u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.14u · WN2 −24.14u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:003.2%————7.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:005.8%————7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:005.9%————8.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0010.3%————10.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:007.5%————7.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0035.4%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0012.8%————6.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0047.3%————6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.6%————6.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.1%————9.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.3%————17.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.8%————14.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:004.4%—0.0%——16.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:002.6%—0.3%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:003.9%————12.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.3%—2.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.0%—3.1%——10.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:004.5%—25.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.9%0.0%30.6%——13.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.2%—5.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.4%34.9%34.9%0.0%—9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.2%—28.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.9%9.3%18.4%6.2%—8.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.8%—31.3%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.1%3.8%21.1%0.5%—5.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.7%—24.7%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.6%0.2%3.1%0.1%—1.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.5%—0.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.8%0.6%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%1.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.2%0.1%—0.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.8%0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%6.1%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%2.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%1.3%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.5%1.5%——0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.5%1.2%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.7%——0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.8%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.5%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend17%82.0°F6.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.0279
NWS forecast7%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:000.0053
IFS Ensemble6%83.1°F3.4°F2026-10-14 00:000.0031
IFS HRES3%78.8°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:000.0007
ICON2%78.2°F4.8°F2026-10-15 00:000.0003
AIFS Single2%78.5°F4.6°F2026-10-15 00:000.0002
WeatherNext 21%79.3°F4.1°F2026-10-14 18:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗