KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 3.5¢Risks 0.86u

WN2NO 96.5¢Risks 24.14u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.14u · WN2 −24.14u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:46+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	9.7%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	9.7%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	9.7%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	9.7%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	9.7%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:38+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	13.8%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	13.8%	31.9%	13.8%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	13.8%	31.9%	13.8%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	8.4%	31.9%	13.8%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	8.5%	31.9%	13.9%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:38+00:00	8.5%	31.9%	13.9%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	8.5%	33.4%	13.9%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	8.5%	33.4%	13.9%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	8.5%	33.4%	4.0%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	8.5%	33.4%	4.0%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	8.5%	33.4%	4.0%	38.8%	1.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.0%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.0%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.0%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.0%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	7.0%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	4.7%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	8.9%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	8.9%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	6.5%	33.4%	8.9%	30.1%	59.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00	4.7%	33.4%	8.9%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	4.7%	33.4%	8.9%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	4.7%	33.4%	8.9%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	4.7%	33.4%	8.9%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	4.7%	33.4%	8.9%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	4.7%	17.9%	3.0%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	4.7%	17.9%	3.0%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	4.7%	17.9%	3.0%	16.1%	29.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	8.1%	17.9%	3.0%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	8.1%	17.9%	3.0%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	8.1%	16.7%	3.0%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	8.1%	16.7%	3.0%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	8.1%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	8.1%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	8.1%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	8.1%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	30.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	6.6%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	20.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	6.6%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	20.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	6.6%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	20.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	6.6%	16.7%	2.6%	16.1%	20.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	6.6%	16.7%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	6.6%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	6.6%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	4.7%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	20.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	3.8%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	2.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	3.8%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	2.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	3.8%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	2.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	3.8%	16.6%	3.7%	25.1%	2.4%
2026-10-14T10:33:58+00:00	3.8%	16.6%	3.7%	4.3%	2.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	3.8%	5.0%	1.1%	4.3%	2.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	3.8%	5.0%	1.1%	4.3%	2.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	3.8%	5.0%	1.1%	4.3%	2.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	3.5%	5.0%	1.1%	4.3%	2.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	3.5%	5.0%	1.0%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	1.0%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	1.0%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	1.0%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	0.5%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	0.5%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	0.5%	4.3%	2.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	2.4%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	2.4%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	2.4%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	0.5%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	1.3%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	1.3%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	1.3%	3.2%	6.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	1.5%	5.6%	1.3%	2.6%	1.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	1.5%	5.6%	1.3%	2.6%	1.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	1.5%	5.6%	1.3%	2.6%	1.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	1.5%	5.6%	1.3%	2.6%	1.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	1.5%	5.6%	1.3%	2.6%	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	17%	82.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0279
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0053
IFS Ensemble	6%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0031
IFS HRES	3%	78.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0007
ICON	2%	78.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	2%	78.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	1%	79.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗