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KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
5%
EPS
3%
HRES
2%
AIFS
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 2.5¢Risks 0.61u
VS
WN2NO 97.5¢Risks 24.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.39u · WN2 −24.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 28.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:002.4%————6.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:004.4%————5.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:004.5%————6.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:008.1%————7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:003.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:005.8%————5.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0030.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0010.3%————5.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0014.6%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0042.1%————4.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.4%————4.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.1%————7.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.2%————14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:001.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.5%————11.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.2%—0.0%——13.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.8%—0.2%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.7%————9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:002.2%—1.9%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.7%—2.1%——8.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.1%—20.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:002.7%0.0%24.9%——10.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.4%—4.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.9%28.6%28.6%0.0%—6.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.8%—23.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.6%6.6%14.0%4.2%—5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.1%—25.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.7%2.4%16.0%0.3%—3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—18.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%2.0%0.1%—0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.3%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%—0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.4%0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%3.8%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%1.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.7%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.8%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.6%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.4%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.0%0.0%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend18%85.0°F4.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast14%84.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
ICON5%79.5°F5.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%83.1°F3.4°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%77.8°F5.8°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%78.9°F5.0°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%78.0°F4.1°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗