KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

45%

43%

35%

32%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.1¢Risks 52.15u

HRESNO 47.9¢Risks 47.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.85u · HRES −47.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	9.6%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	65.2%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	4.5%	12.4%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	70.8%	28.6%	0.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	38.5%	81.6%	17.5%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	22.8%	49.2%	20.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	13.1%	65.5%	9.3%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	34.5%	62.3%	15.7%	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	8.5%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	40.5%	28.4%	15.6%	—	16.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	23.5%	35.1%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	27.4%	31.4%	11.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	23.8%	37.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	20.3%	23.2%	9.4%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	16.4%	47.0%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	12.8%	18.3%	4.9%	0.0%	12.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	15.0%	32.6%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	13.7%	32.1%	5.9%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	4.5%	42.2%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	10.5%	4.8%	5.1%	0.0%	12.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	18.3%	38.1%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	13.7%	17.4%	4.9%	10.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	13.5%	20.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	84.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	82.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	43%	82.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	82.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	81.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗