KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

38%

21%

17%

14%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

WN2NO 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.60u · WN2 −73.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	5.2%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	52.6%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	2.1%	6.8%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	57.7%	18.0%	0.1%	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	25.4%	70.3%	9.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	12.9%	34.4%	11.0%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	6.4%	50.0%	4.3%	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	20.7%	45.8%	7.7%	—	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	3.6%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	15.6%	7.3%	—	8.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	12.1%	20.2%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	14.4%	17.2%	4.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	11.8%	21.0%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	9.4%	11.1%	3.5%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.0%	28.2%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.9%	7.8%	1.5%	0.0%	4.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	16.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	5.0%	15.5%	1.7%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.2%	22.3%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.6%	18.3%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.3%	5.9%	1.1%	2.8%	3.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.0%	7.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	84.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	81.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗