KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

38%

21%

17%

14%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

WN2NO 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.60u · WN2 −73.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	16.0%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	71.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	16.0%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	71.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	16.0%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	71.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	16.0%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	71.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	16.0%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	71.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	11.4%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	11.4%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	11.4%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	11.4%	64.1%	31.5%	60.6%	50.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:59+00:00	11.4%	64.1%	31.5%	42.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	11.4%	34.9%	27.8%	42.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	11.4%	34.9%	27.8%	42.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	11.4%	34.9%	27.8%	42.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	16.3%	34.9%	27.8%	42.7%	50.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	17.2%	34.9%	28.1%	42.8%	50.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	22.2%	57.6%	23.3%	29.0%	20.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	22.2%	57.6%	34.9%	29.0%	20.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	22.2%	57.6%	34.9%	29.0%	20.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	22.2%	57.6%	34.9%	29.0%	20.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	22.2%	57.6%	34.9%	29.0%	20.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	34.9%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	34.9%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	34.9%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	34.9%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	21.6%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:49+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	35.1%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	42.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	25.0%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	25.0%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	25.0%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	25.0%	57.6%	22.5%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	25.0%	38.5%	14.1%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	25.0%	38.5%	14.1%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	25.0%	38.5%	14.1%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	25.0%	38.5%	14.1%	30.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	21.0%	38.5%	14.1%	17.4%	38.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	84.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	81.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗