KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

48%

20%

17%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

AIFSNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.45u · AIFS −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	39.7%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	43.7%	10.2%	0.0%	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	15.2%	56.6%	4.8%	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	6.5%	21.6%	5.4%	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.7%	34.5%	1.7%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.8%	30.0%	3.3%	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	1.3%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	13.1%	7.3%	2.9%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.2%	10.0%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.3%	7.9%	1.6%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.8%	10.0%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	3.5%	4.4%	1.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	14.0%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.5%	2.6%	0.4%	0.0%	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.8%	6.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.4%	5.9%	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	9.2%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.7%	6.6%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	1.4%	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.8%	1.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	87.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	83.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	17%	78.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	81.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 88°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗