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KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
51%
HRES
48%
WN2
20%
ICON
17%
AIFS
16%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u
VS
AIFSNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.45u · AIFS −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:0010-13 08:0310-13 09:3410-13 11:05
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:0016.0%51.1%20.5%47.5%16.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:0016.0%51.1%20.5%47.5%16.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:0016.0%51.1%20.5%47.5%16.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:0016.0%51.1%20.5%47.5%16.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:0016.0%51.1%20.5%47.5%16.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend53%88.0°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble51%87.6°F3.5°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS HRES48%87.1°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%83.1°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
ICON17%78.0°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single16%81.9°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 88°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗