KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

43%

34%

22%

15%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.8¢Risks 31.75u

WN2NO 68.2¢Risks 68.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.25u · WN2 −68.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	7.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	1.3%	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	39.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	67.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	60.3%	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	71.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	4.3%	55.4%	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	70.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	29.8%	52.8%	0.1%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	60.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	27.2%	58.0%	10.3%	32.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	53.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	48.5%	53.0%	17.9%	31.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	30.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	47.6%	33.0%	11.9%	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	37.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	32.2%	33.0%	15.2%	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	10.7%	34.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	26.9%	33.8%	10.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	24.2%	36.8%	—	22.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	21.6%	37.3%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	18.4%	35.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	24.0%	39.4%	5.4%	17.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	18.3%	55.0%	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	16.3%	54.1%	4.7%	16.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	25.3%	52.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	23.0%	54.4%	7.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	17.5%	54.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	85.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	84.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	83.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	82.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗